What Does the Incoming Marcos Administration Mean for the Philippine Economy and International Trade?

Marcos campaigned on a unity platform, pledging to heal the divides of a deeply polarized Philippines. Marcos presents no plan for economic engagement; however, his emphasis on improving ease of business in the Philippines and passion for infrastructure suggest that his international economic engagement strategy will likely build off the Duterte administration's approach, albeit without the colorful language.

If the efforts of his proposed clampdown on corruption and legislation on improving ease of doing business bear fruit, the Philippines will be better positioned for deeper international trade relationships. Marcos has no specific stances on other relevant aspects of IPEF.

Inflation is rising at the highest rate since December 2018. Generally, the Philippine economy is headed for a post-Covid recovery; initial estimates suggest that the country will return to pre-pandemic GDP growth this year. Marcos’s lack of a platform makes it uncertain if he will be able to steward over the Philippines’ continued recovery. The Philippines can best encourage foreign investment by making progress in improving government transparency and reducing corruption. Marcos’s alliances with Philippine oligarchs raise questions about corruption, graft, and cronyism.